三泰虎

疫情過后,印度城市或無法恢復原樣

 Why India's cities may not remain the same after the virus goes away

疫情過后,印度城市或無法恢復原樣

By Archana Chaudhary and Anurag Kotoky

Migrant workers fled India’s cities en masse last month after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s lockdown left them suddenly unemployed. Now the employers that let them go may need to offer big incentives to lure them back.

上個月,印度總理納倫德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)下令封城后,大批農民工突然失業,紛紛逃離城市。現在,解雇他們的雇主可能需要提供豐厚的激勵才能吸引他們回來。

Sontosh Das, 24, lost his job driving for a family of doctors in New Delhi and fled to his village in West Bengal some 1,400 kilometers away, just before the lockdown took effect on March 24. Now home, he said he’d rather try his luck with the go nment’s rural job-guarantee program than risk being left with nothing once again.

24歲的松托什·達斯原本在新德里為一名醫生開車,失業后返回了位于西孟加拉邦他的村莊,距離德里1400公里。回到家后,他說他寧愿靠政府的農村工作保障計劃碰碰運氣看看能不能找到一份工作,也不愿冒再次一無所有的風險。

“After Modi ji’s lockdown, we’re scared of returning,” Das said over a crackling phone line. “During tough times, only family comes to help.”

達斯說:“莫迪下令封城后,我們害怕再回去。在困難時期,只有家人會幫你一把。”

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Tens of thousands of workers who returned to villages are now similarly weighing whether to return at the end of the lockdown, which Modi this week extended to May 3. Companies are already reporting labour shortages at ports and factories, potentially exacerbating an economic slowdown. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. this month slashed its annual growth forecast for India to the slowest pace since 1992, around when a balance of payments crisis brought down the sitting go nment.

莫迪將封城延長至5月3日,數以萬計回家的農民工現在也同樣在考慮是否在封城結束后返回城市工作。企業已經在報告港口和工廠出現勞動力短缺現象,這可能會加劇經濟放緩。高盛集團本月將印度經濟的年度增長率預測下調至1992年以來的最低水平。

Automobile makers, which include the local units of Nissan Motor Co., Ford Motor Co. and Suzuki Motor Corp., are discussing potential labour shortages after India lifts its lockdown, according to people familiar with discussions. Jewellers, India’s second-largest export sector, see production suffering for at least two months, said N. Anantha Padmanaban, chairman of the All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council.

據知情人士透露,很多汽車制造商,包括日產汽車、福特汽車和鈴木汽車等在印度的子公司,正在討論封城結束后可能出現的勞動力短缺問題。全印珠寶行業委員會主席帕德馬納班稱,珠寶行業的生產至少將受到兩個月的影響,珠寶行業是印度第二大出口行業。

Real estate developers, an industry that includes investors Blackstone Group Inc. and Brookfield Asset Management Inc., predicted more incomplete apartments and office buildings that could ripple through the financial sector in the coming year as a surge in defaults. Companies such as Jindal Steel Ltd. are facing a shortage of crane operators at ports.

黑石集團和布魯克菲爾德資產管理公司預計,由于違約激增,房地產開發商明年可能會出現更多爛尾的公寓和寫字樓,金融業將受到沖擊。金達爾鋼鐵有限公司等公司正面臨港口起重機操作員短缺的問題。

‘Unprecedented Hardship’

“前所未有的困難”

The labour shortages could persist for as long as six months before broader unemployment becomes a bigger concern, said Sujan Hajra, Mumbai-based chief economist at Anand Rathi Financial Services Ltd. About 20% of India’s workforce comprises migrants journeying from another state, while a larger share is made up of people who travel from different parts of the state where their workplace is located, he added.

Anand Rathi金融服務公司駐孟買首席經濟學家Sujan Hajra稱,在更大規模的失業出現之前,勞動力短缺可能會持續長達6個月。他補充說,印度約20%的勞動力來自其他邦的外來務工人員。

“The unprecedented hardship faced by migrant workers since the outbreak of Covid-19 might result in fear psychosis,” Hajra said, predicting a worsening of India’s “already precarious employment situation.”

Hajra說:“自從疫情爆發以來,外來務工人員面臨了前所未有的困難,這可能會引起人們的恐懼心理。”

他還預測印度“本已不穩定的就業形勢”會進一步惡化。

The go nment is aware the country will need to address labour shortages to restart the economy, Nitin Gadkari, minister of roads and small and medium scale enterprises, said in an interview.

印度公路和中小企業部長尼廷•加德卡里在接受采訪時表示,政府意識到,為了重啟經濟,印度將需要解決勞動力短缺問題。

“We need to see if there’s a way to start work to ensure employment for at least a section of daily wage workers,” Gadkari said. “If businesses and contractors can provide sanitizers, masks and ensure social distancing, we could see if at least some activity can be restarted.”

加德卡里說:“我們需要看看是否有辦法確保讓至少一部分日薪工人就業。如果企業和承包商能夠提供消毒劑、口罩,并確保社交距離,我們可以看到,至少有一些經濟活動可以重啟。”

‘Prolonged Recession’

“長期衰退”

Any meaningful stimulus would need a minimum Rs 6 lakh crore ($79 billion) compared with the Rs 60,000 crore cash Modi’s go nment pledges to transfer to the poor, estimates P Chidambaram, India’s former finance minister who presided over the country’s response to the global financial crisis of 2008/09. A “deep and prolonged recession” awaits sectors such as agriculture that are dependent on migration, Chidambaram said by email.

印度前財政部長奇丹巴拉姆估計,任何有意義的刺激計劃都至少需要6萬億盧比(790億美元),而莫迪政府承諾向窮人提供的現金援助只有6000億盧比。奇丹巴拉姆曾主持印度應對2008-2009年全球金融危機。奇丹巴拉姆表示,農業等行業將面臨“嚴重而長期的衰退”。

印度經濟時報讀者的評論:

譯文來源:三泰虎 http://www.aunaza.live/49774.html   譯者:Jessica.Wu

sanujit roy

Many states were only left with population after independence

獨立后,除了人口一直在增加之外,很多邦一無所有

 

Dhiraj Wala

Small, medium or big industrial units must think to spend / arrange / provide residential accommodation facilities in future to sustained labours to avoid any shortage of labours for their continuous operations.

今后,為了避免工人短缺,中小型或大型企業必須考慮為工人安排住宿,這樣工人才能維持生計,工廠才能維持運作。

 

Prince Gw

Post lock down, it doesn't take more than 3 months to become normal with or with out virus around. That is the reality.No one cares for virus or else there would not have been so many accidental deaths in our country.

封城后,不出3個月印度就能恢復正常,不管周圍有沒有病毒。這就是現實,沒有人在乎病毒,否則我們國家就不會有這么多意外死亡了。

 

Avnindra Baranwal

Time to adopt ONLINE VOTINGS for all citizens, in all elections.

以后選舉應該實行網上投票。

 

Avnindra Baranwal

Ensure small/medium industries moved to other places, where electricity, cheap labour and transportation is available.Business/Jobs must not suffer.

讓中小企業搬遷到其他電力充足、有廉價勞動力、交通便利的地方,不能讓生產受到影響。

 

minooengineer Enginee

An inducement to return is giving the workers a suitable accommodation, a costly proposition as is now visible. Needs to be considered & examined by the CEOs.

給工人們提供合適的住處是一大激勵,雖然成本高,但各位CEO們應該考慮一下。

 

VK Singh

No meaning of apologies of PM Modi,who suffers suddenly lockdown.By this step,credit go down.Its solution to diversify the project in rural areas.

突然下令封城,莫迪出來道歉也沒什么意義,如此一來,莫迪的信譽下降了。

 

All This NonViolence

Announcing demonetisation or lockdown with immediate effect has kileld people - even when they are alive.HE MUST HAVE GIVEN A 2 DAY WINDOW FOR STARNDED PEOPLE TO RETURN HOME - probably ask them to self isolate . BUT ANNOUNCING WITH NO TIME TO PREPARE IS VIOLENCE OF THE WORST ORDER.

突然下令封城會把很多人逼上絕路的。莫迪應該寬限2天,讓外來務工人員返鄉的,讓他們自行隔離。沒有給大家時間準備的情況下就貿然宣布封城,這比暴麗行為還惡劣。

 

Vivek. B

I think people would be very cautious for next 6-9 months or till Medicine/ vaccine is made available, to move out to far places .

我認為在接下來的6-9個月里,或者在疫苗問世之前,人們會非常謹慎,回到偏遠的老家生活。

 

Ramamohanarao Kodali

The migrant labor stranded at various places are the most neglected sufferers in this Covid episode. Lack of food, lack of shelter with no transport They are the worst sufferes.

滯留在各個地方的農民工是最容易被忽視的受害者。沒有食物,沒有住所,搭不到交通工具,他們的處境是最困難的。

 

Sanujit Roy

4 states were already under developed for past 20 years

在過去20年里,有4個邦已經處于欠發達狀態

 

Theresamma Paul

Is lockdown a permanent solution to curb the ongoing situation? Still now no vaccine has been found. What happened to all our medical researchers? How long will it take to find out the medicine?

封城是控制疫情的解決辦法嗎?

目前還沒有研制出疫苗,醫學研究人員干嘛去了?

研制疫苗要多長時間?

Vinod Menon

There are many viral diseases that have no vaccine, and mark my words COVID-19, will join the list, already it is far more contagious than the others which have no vaccine. So what's the way out? There is only one way, try to protect the vulnerable, and hope for the best and develop sufficient numbers of immune population, in other word herd immunity. Social distancing is a luxury only for the rich, in a jam packed country like India the poor will just have to depend on the roll of the dice

很多病毒性疾病都沒有疫苗,記住我的話,新冠病毒也會是其中之一。新冠病毒更具有傳染性。解決辦法呢?只有一種,也就是“群體免疫”,保護好易感染群體,并讓群體免疫達到足夠數量。對富人來說,保持社交疏離完全沒問題,在印度這樣一個擁擠的國家,窮人只能靠運氣了

Ramamohanarao Kodali

How to develop sufficient number of immune population?

如何讓免疫人群達到足夠數量?

 

Madan Lal Sharma

Just check whether Our scientists have discovered anything so far. In this case the research will be done in foreign countries. It is not easy to find out a cure for such a dreaded disease.

到目前為止,印度科學家有沒有什么進展?要找到治療這種可怕疾病的方法并不容易。這次只能靠別的國家進行研究了。

 

Narayanan Mahalingam

Rahul Gandhi has already built a vaccine. He is waiting for more deaths under Modi credit before he releases it..

拉胡爾·甘地已經研制出疫苗了。他要等死亡病例更多的時候再公布,好讓莫迪名譽掃地。

 

Shri Mahesh

we have enough workers in India. let's export millions worldwide and resettle in foren countries. let's share

印度工人多得是,可以向全球輸出數百萬工人,讓他們在世界各國定居。

 

Shri Mahesh

time to offer double and triple wages to India workers. make money, share money. Enjoy

是時候給印度工人張工資了,翻番或翻三倍吧

外文:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/why-indias-cities-may-not-remain-the-same-after-the-virus-goes-away/articleshow/75176229.cms

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